I believe this book offers the most enlightening perspective on current social and economic events, and it has prompted deep reflections about the future of my work. Reflecting on the book, I'm now questioning whether my earlier analyses might have overlooked the 'black swan' events—the rare but impactful occurrences. In what follows, I will share my understanding of the book in three distinct parts: 1) Maintaining objectivity amidst complex information, 2) The role of risk forecasting in equity research, 2) My considerations for the future of the market.

Nassim notes in the book that people often seek data affirming their own views, neglecting comprehensive information. This bias can ensnare individuals in "naive empiricism." Moreover, humans have an innate fear of certain events due to evolutionary reasons, leading us to focus on specific uncertainties (tunneling) rather than a broader range of potential black swan events. This view has been proven in my recent work. For instance, consider my recent analysis of Celsius Holdings (CELH US), a firm I contemplated investing in. I observed their revenue growth exceeding 100% and listened to their CEO promote the firm on CNBC, which initially led me to believe in their continued success. However, adopting a neutral perspective made me consider the potential risks and their impact on future development. Incorporating these views into my DCF model yielded different results. This doesn't mean the firm isn't worth investing in; rather, it provides a broader perspective and prediction of its future. Intuitive Surgical (ISRG US) is as another good example. It's natural to harbor biases toward certain sectors or companies because we're human. However, we can counteract this by challenging our own views after performing a fundamental analysis. Whether our initial opinion is positive or negative, we should argue from the opposite perspective and search for evidence that could refute our initial stance. Striving to remain objective is crucial, and deliberately challenging our conclusions helps us test the robustness of our theories.

Risk analysis involves detailed data and quantitative scrutiny, aiming to pinpoint potential dangers and reasons behind stock fluctuations. Beneficially, examining historical data uncovers factors previously factored into stock prices, preparing us to handle similar future risks or events. Yet, it's crucial to remember that past events don't dictate the future. The economic shifts in the U.S. and China following economic crises demonstrate this. Predictions often foresaw recessions after inflation and major rate hikes, followed by rate cuts, but reality often diverges. I also believe that the advent of AI technology will greatly enhance equity research analysis by revealing potential risks within companies or sectors. Learning about AI and quantitative analysis is beneficial for my work, which is why I chose risk-related courses during my MBA. I don't expect to become an expert in this field, but this foundational knowledge is crucial for engaging effectively with data scientists and risk analysts. To me, insights are essential for equity research analysis, yet understanding the data is the initial step in starting fundamental analysis and building valuation models.

In wrapping up, the insights from this book have led me to ponder more deeply about the future of the market and what actions I can take. My work revolves around analyzing companies and sectors to estimate their real value. But, recognizing the complexities of the current world situation and my own human cognitive limitations, I'm aware that my analyses aren't without flaws. What I can commit to is a continuous reflection and an incremental improvement of my work.  I've always felt that there's so much I don't know and need to learn.

Looking ahead, AI stands out as a new frontier in the market, but other technological advancements will continue to challenge our previous understandings in the future. I believe all industries are interconnected within a large capital market ecosystem. This means that, for the overall investment landscape, there are valuable projects and companies worth investing in across every sector, and it will be my duty as equity research analysts to unearth these opportunities. I firmly believe in the value I bring to my position and remain hopeful about progressing further in this arena.